Mesoscale Discussion 1831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 PM CST Thu Dec 03 2020

   Areas affected...Extreme southeastern LA and southern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040541Z - 040715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Weakly rotating storms will be possible from extreme
   southeastern LA into extreme southern MS, but severe storms are not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in convection has been observed the
   past 1-2 hours from southeastern LA into extreme southern MS, near a
   weak surface cyclone and cold front.  There has been some indication
   of a modest increase in larger-scale ascent the past few hours per
   subtle moistening in water vapor imagery, downstream from a
   positive-tilt trough from southwest TX to the mid MS Valley.  Local
   VWPs show sufficient deep-layer and low-level shear for rotating
   storms in the narrow warm sector across extreme southeastern LA into
   coastal MS.  However, the greater moisture return and slightly
   larger buoyancy (MUCAPE near 500 J/kg) is occurring atop a shallow,
   somewhat stable near-surface layer.  Given the slightly elevated
   nature of the convection, and the otherwise marginal buoyancy and
   vertical shear environment, the threat for severe storms still
   appears minimal.

   ..Thompson.. 12/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29868886 29538931 29358990 29469019 30088997 30628973
               31108943 31098890 30758860 30478850 29868886