Mesoscale Discussion 1832
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern
   GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041937Z - 042200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado
   may occur with a line of storms this afternoon. Watch issuance is
   not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A low-topped line of showers with occasional embedded
   lightning has shown signs of weak low-level rotation and modest
   organization across parts of the FL Panhandle early this afternoon.
   Low-level moisture return ahead of this convection has remain muted,
   with low 60s surface dewpoints having advanced as far north as the
   FL/GA line vicinity. Combined with poor mid-level lapse rates, this
   modest low-level moisture is limiting instability over land so far.
   Still, with weak diurnal heating occurring amid some breaks in a low
   stratus deck ahead of the line, up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
   ultimately develop by peak afternoon heating in a couple of hours
   across the warm sector, with slightly greater instability present
   with southward extent (near Apalachicola).

   The VAD wind profile from KTLH shows veering/strengthening with
   height through mid levels in association with an approaching
   shortwave trough over the Mid-South. Enough mid-level flow is
   present to support around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which
   will continue to encourage storm organization. At this point, it
   appears that the weak instability will serve as the primary factor
   acting to limit a greater severe threat across parts of the FL
   Panhandle and far southwestern GA this afternoon. Even so, isolated
   strong/gusty winds may occur with the line through convective
   downdraft processes. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, as
   around 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH should be present across the
   warm sector. With the overall severe threat expected to remain
   rather isolated/marginal, watch issuance is not anticipated at this
   time.

   ..Gleason/Dial.. 12/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30148410 29808442 29538501 29618540 29998560 30258586
               30638567 31018491 31108457 31148425 31068400 30678392
               30148410