Mesoscale Discussion 1846
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

   Areas affected...southern Louisiana and adjacent areas of southern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140026Z - 140200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will exist downstream of a line
   of storms over south-central Louisiana.  A WW is not expected at
   this time, though trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery suggests a bit of an uptick in
   convective trends along a line from Concordia to Acadia Parishes in
   south-central Louisiana.  This development isn't particularly
   surprising given strong frontal forcing (with convection collocated
   near/atop a cold front across the area) and forcing for ascent
   associated with an upstream mid-level wave over Texas.  The storms
   themselves are in a poor-lapse-rate environment, however mid-60s F
   to 70F dewpoints are likely keeping the convection
   near-surface-based in the short term amidst around 250-700 J/kg
   MUCAPE.  Low-level shear is quite strong (around 300 m2/s2 SRH in
   the lowest 3km), which may foster brief updraft rotation and perhaps
   a few damaging wind gusts over the next couple hours.  A recent wind
   gust to 54 knots was also noted with convective/frontal passage over
   Alexandrea, LA about an hour ago, though weak instability may limit
   the overall downstream threat.  Convective trends are being
   monitored, although a WW issuance seems unlikely at this time.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 12/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31369229 31669188 31769116 31429006 30778902 30398881
               29708914 29419048 29599234 29939297 30799263 31139247
               31369229