Mesoscale Discussion 1848
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

   Areas affected...East-central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140727Z - 140900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for a brief QLCS tornado might persist for
   another hour or two in a narrow corridor across east-central AL.

   DISCUSSION...A low-topped narrow squall line of showers produced a
   TDS around 0700Z in southern Jefferson County. This portion of the
   squall line appears to be co-located with the surface cyclone that
   is expected to continue east into northern GA through daybreak. A
   confined plume of 63-64 F surface dew points just ahead of the
   cyclone appears to be sufficient to yield scant surface-based
   buoyancy with MLCAPE of 100-200 J/kg per 06Z RAP soundings. In the
   presence of extreme low-level SRH (0-1 km above 500 m2/s2), the risk
   for another brief tornado is not entirely negligible where surface
   winds can remain southerly in a narrow corridor ahead of the
   cyclone. Surface winds that are more south-southwesterly across the
   warm sector will minimize the risk farther south.

   ..Grams.. 12/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33398670 33528644 33788586 33858554 33688536 33458532
               33328534 33158560 33018603 32978656 33028674 33398670