Mesoscale Discussion 1849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

   Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141658Z - 141830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few locally strong to damaging wind gusts are possible
   across eastern NC through about 1830Z. Magnitude and duration of the
   threat are expected to remain too limited for a WW.

   DISCUSSION...A band of low-topped, slightly elevated storms located
   over the NC Coastal Plain has recently shown an intensity increase
   based on reflectivity and lightning trends. This line is moving east
   at around 45 kt. The activity is moving into slightly greater
   low-level theta-e air where temperatures have warmed to near 70F and
   dewpoints have increased to low 60s F suggesting inflow to the
   updrafts is originating close to the surface layer. Activity is
   embedded within very strong vertical wind profiles with 50-65 kt in
   the 0.5 - 3 km layer. Through the very marginal thermodynamic
   environment with 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE will continue to be a
   significant limiting factor for a more robust severe threat, a few
   strong to severe wind gusts might be transported to the surface
   within this convective band during the next 1.5 hours.

   ..Dial.. 12/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   35297707 36097645 36177580 35417534 34877624 34897687
               35297707