Mesoscale Discussion 1851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

   Areas affected...northwest NC...southwest VA...southeast WV

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 161136Z - 161530Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates will probably range from 0.05-0.10
   inch per 3 hours and shift gradually northward and become focused
   over parts of southwest VA and adjacent WV this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this morning shows a precip shield moving
   northeast across the western Carolinas.  The increasing large-scale
   ascent is increasing via strengthening low-level warm air advection
   and intensifying mid- to upper-level ascent associated with the
   approaching trough.  This will favor both the onset and uptick in
   precipitation rates across southwest VA and adjacent parts of WV/NC.

   Surface conditions show temperatures near 32 deg F near the NC/VA
   border with cooler temperatures in the upper 20s near the greater
   Blacksburg and VA/WV border region.  A slow but gradual warming at
   the surface is expected near the Greensboro, NC area during the next
   few hours with temperatures rising above freezing.  Farther north,
   the shallow sub-freezing airmass will likely be maintained through
   mid-late morning across southwest VA, especially in valleys.  Models
   indicate precipitation rates in the 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours are
   probable with freezing rain the precipitation type.

   ..Smith.. 12/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35948090 36938147 38138037 38077933 37467902 36078006
               35948090