Mesoscale Discussion 1853
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161816Z - 162045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk of isolated damaging gusts, or perhaps a brief
   tornado may develop this afternoon, contingent on sufficient surface
   warming.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows the low just south of KNCA,
   which is coincident with an ongoing band of thunderstorms extending
   south/southeast offshore. Strong pressure falls of 2-3 mb/hr persist
   ahead of the low, where a gradual warming is taking place at the
   surface through advection.

   Forecast soundings indicate a better threat of surface-based storms
   with dewpoints at or above 63 F. This should be attained at least
   over the Outer Banks, and may develop across the remaining counties
   east of the low track.

   While very strong low-level shear exists ahead of the low, initial
   storms may be elevated. The greatest chance of a severe storm will
   be just ahead of the low track, where the 63-64 F dewpoints manage
   to move onshore, and where low-level SRH remains strong, prior to
   veering later today. Both surface observations and radar trends will
   be monitored for any increase in severe potential this afternoon.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 12/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34577742 35397670 36107642 36467627 36657611 36657583
               36097560 35657535 35167545 34557644 34437676 34347736
               34577742