Mesoscale Discussion 1859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191859Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage may pose an isolated
   severe threat(damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado) for a few
   hours this afternoon across far southeast Texas.

   DISCUSSION...A positively tilted shortwave trough over Oklahoma and
   central Texas is supporting thunderstorm development along a cold
   front near Houston. These storms have remained loosely organized so
   far likely resulting from the limited destabilization due to
   widespread cloud cover. However, lightning data has shown updrafts
   slowly increasing in intensity over the last hour. With slow
   destabilization continuing to occur along and north of the coastal
   front, additional storm development and gradual intensification
   appears possible. A mix of line segments and transient supercell
   structures will be possible with VWP data from HGX and CRP showing 
   moderately sheared profiles and 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2. A risk
   for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
   develop as storms move toward the immediate coast. A weather watch
   is unlikely given the relatively short duration of the threat and
   little downstream destabilization in extreme eastern Texas.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27229728 27719739 28289729 28649716 29169686 29849613
               30429499 30859441 30339419 29929419 29359438 29159474
               28539561 28229645 27879685 27499703 27299706 27229728