Mesoscale Discussion 1862
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020

   Areas affected...Western Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202320Z - 210145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage and tornado threat will likely
   continue for a couple more hours across the western Florida
   Peninsula. The threat is expected to be too brief and localized for
   weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A couple small clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing
   from the north-central Florida Peninsula south-southwestward into
   the Tampa Bay vicinity, and then offshore into the eastern Gulf of
   Mexico. This activity is associated with a subtle shortwave trough
   evident on water vapor imagery. Instability across the western
   Florida Peninsula is weak with the RAP estimating MLCAPE near Tampa
   Bay around 800 J/kg. In addition, the Tampa Bay WSR-88D VWP has 0-6
   km shear near 45 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 225
   m2/s2. This environment will be enough to produce storm rotation
   within the strongest of cells. Although a marginal tornado and wind
   damage threat will exist as cells move onshore, instability is
   weaker further inland suggesting that storms will gradually become
   less organized as they move eastward across the western Florida
   Peninsula. For this reason, weather watch issuance will likely not
   be needed early this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 12/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28208284 27728288 27338273 27068239 27028182 27318128
               28088122 28738169 28878211 28668269 28208284