Mesoscale Discussion 1867
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020

   Areas affected...much of Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232146Z - 232315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-topped convection along a strong cold front may
   support isolated damaging gusts through this evening. A weather
   watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar composites have shown a gradual uptick
   in reflectively associated with convective cores developing along a
   strong cold front across western Arkansas and extreme northeast
   Texas. Additional storm development appears possible as upper-level
   ascent from a shortwave trough over the Great Plains/Midwest
   overspreads a weakly unstable air mass across Arkansas. With
   dewpoints in the 50s F, instability is expected remain rather feeble
   with 100-500 J/kg of MLCAPE available per SPC mesoanalysis. Despite
   the poor thermodynamics, strong wind fields in the lowest several km
   may support damaging downbursts with the fast moving and low-topped
   convective line. With little instability owing to dense cloud cover
   and drier continental air to the east, the severe threat is expected
   to remain below the intensity and spatial temporal preconditions for
   a weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33069349 33199438 34229430 35309370 36059312 36349241
               36419160 36309108 35979053 35199059 34359087 33759113
               33049153 32939164 32969211 33069349