Mesoscale Discussion 1869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020

   Areas affected...far southeast Texas...much of Louisiana...southwest
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232359Z - 240230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity later this
   evening along the cold front. Damaging gusts or an isolated tornado
   will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms persist this evening from southeast TX
   into southwest LA, near and downstream of today's low-level lapse
   rate plume. At times, cells have shown rotation, and even
   indications of marginal hail.

   VWPs around the region indicate nearly straight hodographs, with
   only modest SRH sampled. For example, the reading at POE at 00Z.

   Surface analysis shows the cold front is approaching the area from
   the west, and will likely interact with the instability plume this
   evening. This should result in a ramp-up of storms along the front,
   and a transition to faster moving, linear storm mode. Damaging winds
   will become a concern, and forecast soundings indicate sufficient
   SRH will remain available for a tornado or two as well. Trends will
   continue to be monitored in the near term, with a watch possible
   later this evening.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 12/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29409462 30129468 31029446 31679354 32059254 32769167
               32849120 32589089 31359078 30269102 29449173 29559272
               29719320 29699361 29619402 29489441 29409462