Mesoscale Discussion 1871
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

   Areas affected...southeast MS...southwest AL...western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 240702Z - 240800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An additional tornado watch is possible to the east of WW
   516.  A relative lull in potential may occur in the short-term
   before increasing as the activity approaches Mobile Bay later
   tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an extensive northeast-southwest
   oriented squall line from northern AL through eastern MS and into
   southeast LA.  Recent subjective analysis indicates a maritime front
   arcing from west-central AL south across southwest AL and
   southeastward across the western half of the FL Panhandle.  The
   primary warm frontal zone is in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor in
   southern MS eastward near the FL coast.  Surface dewpoints rising
   into the lower 60s have generally been confined to the coastal
   counties of AL and the western FL Panhandle thus far.  

   Modifying the 00z Slidell, LA raob for current conditions near the
   I-10 corridor east of the squall line indicates 250 J/kg SBCAPE is
   present.  Strong low to mid tropospheric flow fields will
   conditionally support localized strong/damaging gusts with the
   inflections/bows in the squall line.  It is possible a brief tornado
   or two could develop as the activity develops east across the
   central Gulf Coast tonight.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 12/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31448928 31248634 30108643 30188972 30609017 31448928