Mesoscale Discussion 1872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

   Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241123Z - 241330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for a supercell or two moving ashore from the
   Gulf of Mexico may occur this morning, but only a limited area
   (confined to near the beaches) and the activity transitioning from
   surface-based to elevated, will likely preclude the need for an
   additional tornado watch.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows band of quasi-discrete convection
   south of Pensacola ahead of the squall line near Mobile Bay and
   approaching the FL Panhandle.  The residual influence of a surface
   ridge over the northeast Gulf Coast has been slow to abate with
   relatively cool temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in the
   eastern Panhandle to the lower 60s in the western Panhandle.  The
   lack of stronger destabilization ahead of the approaching storm
   activity will likely contribute to storms not intensifying
   appreciably as they move into a more hostile air mass.  Nonetheless,
   an isolated risk for a strong/damaging gust with the discrete
   activity (relatively low), or the squall line later this morning,
   could yield a localized severe risk.  However, the spatial extent
   and overall magnitude of this marginal threat will likely preclude a
   tornado watch.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 12/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30858621 30518540 29758486 29578523 30348629 30858621