Mesoscale Discussion 1873
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast SC and southern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 241716Z - 241945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...While the near-term tornado risk may remain marginal, it
   will increase into a higher probability risk later this afternoon.
   When exactly that threat will become sufficient for a tornado watch
   is still uncertain, but a watch will likely be needed at some point.

   DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection from Robeson to Columbus County,
   NC have had embedded supercell structures. These have been supported
   by rather strong low-level shear with 0-1 km SRH greater than 300
   m2/s2. Scant surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) is
   prevalent as temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s
   amid low 60s dew points. This high shear/low CAPE environment will
   probably remain conducive to transient supercell structures capable
   of producing a brief tornado, initially across southern NC. 

   With time, greater low-level moistening is expected across northeast
   SC spreading into southern NC. Multiple rounds of convective
   development within confluence bands are anticipated and the risk for
   sustaining supercells should increase towards mid to late afternoon.
   A few tornadoes appear to be the primary hazard.

   ..Grams/Guyer.. 12/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35687828 35217778 34427788 33937827 33647882 33447958
               34437999 35177964 35657907 35687828