Mesoscale Discussion 1874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

   Areas affected...Central/eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241811Z - 241945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado
   will exist along a pre-frontal QLCS that should progress east from
   the central to the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. The
   magnitude of these threats are expected to be small enough to
   preclude a weather watch issuance in the near-term, but
   observational trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a short QLCS depicted some
   organized structure in radar reflectively as it moved onshore in
   Gulf County, FL with overshooting CB tops in 1-min visible satellite
   imagery, before waning farther inland. The KTLH VWP continues to
   sample 50-60 kt southwesterlies through the 1-3 km AGL layer.
   However, the boundary layer has struggled to warm greatly in this
   portion of the Panhandle and southwest GA with surface temperatures
   holding from 65-70 F. This suggests strong gusts capable of
   localized tree damage should be the primary hazard with the line.

   Convection just east of the Tallahassee area has shown broad and
   weak low-level rotation at times. This activity remains on the
   leading edge of surface-based buoyancy, which will likely limit
   potential for more sustained supercell development. The overall
   tornado threat may remain low this afternoon.

   ..Grams/Guyer.. 12/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30478480 30778456 31018433 31068418 31268400 31248319
               30918293 30278319 29998338 29848395 29688476 29688515
               30478480