Mesoscale Discussion 1876
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern NC and far eastern SC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...

   Valid 242008Z - 242215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes should increase through about
   23Z within a broken band of convection from the NC/SC coastal border
   northward across a portion of eastern NC.

   DISCUSSION...A broken band of low-topped but deepening convection
   within a confluence axis is ongoing across far eastern SC into a
   portion of eastern NC east of the Raleigh metro area. Several cells
   within this band have acquired low-level rotation, although largely
   weak in magnitude thus far. The 18Z MHX sounding sampled an
   initially warm/dry layer near 700 mb which has likely been a
   limiting factor. However, surface dew points have crept up into the
   mid 60s from eastern SC into southern NC, which is yielding
   increasing buoyancy from south (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) to north
   (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). With the KLTX VWP data suggesting 0-1
   km SRH remains around 300 m2/s2, a few of these cells (especially
   those currently near the NC/SC border area) should acquire more
   intense supercell rotational velocities and yield an increasing
   threat for tornadoes through about 6 PM EST.

   ..Grams.. 12/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35987790 36237754 36127712 35887695 35477714 34407781
               33667869 33857906 34747864 35987790