Mesoscale Discussion 1877
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast GA and northeast FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242128Z - 242300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong (35-45 kt) wind gusts capable of
   producing sporadic tree damage may persist as a short QLCS continues
   east across parts of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida through
   7 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...A short-line segment is ongoing from Clinch County, GA
   south to Taylor County, FL. Scant buoyancy has limited the intensity
   of this QLCS despite the presence of 50-60 kt 1-3 km AGL
   southwesterlies as sampled by the KVAX VWP. This has yielded
   measured surface wind gusts largely up to only 35 kt. Despite the
   poor buoyancy profile, warmer surface temperatures with steeper
   near-surface lapse rates across northeast FL and coastal southeast
   GA should support somewhat enhanced downdraft potential as this line
   progresses east. In addition, the impinging of very strong 700-mb
   westerlies (a 90-kt jet sampled by the KEVX VWP during the past
   hour) could compensate for the weak thermodynamic setup and yield a
   risk for strong surface wind gusts towards the Atlantic Coast.

   ..Grams/Guyer.. 12/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31118282 31858245 31998205 31858165 31458147 30908150
               30568149 30098166 29798218 29598284 29638341 29858347
               31118282