Mesoscale Discussion 1881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western NY downstream of Lake Erie

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 260702Z - 261300Z

   SUMMARY...A band of heavy lake effect snow will continue through the
   early morning. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour appear likely
   within this narrow band.

   DISCUSSION...A favorable west-southwesterly low-level fetch off Lake
   Erie and steep low-level lapse rates from the surface through about
   750 mb are supporting a narrow band of heavy lake effect snow across
   a small portion of western NY early this morning. With little change
   in the low to mid-level flow expected over the next several hours,
   this band will probably drift only a small amount, while still
   potentially impacting the southern portions of the Buffalo metro
   area. Snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour will likely occur
   within the band, with an earlier snowfall report indicating 6.7
   inches of snow had fallen over a 3.5 hour period. Locally higher
   rates up to 3 inches per hour are not out of the question either
   within the higher reflectivities in the core of the band. Current
   expectations are for this heavy snow band to persist for at least
   the next several hours (through 13Z), while also continuing to
   support high snowfall rates. Later this morning, the band may begin
   to drift northward some and very gradually lessen in intensity as a
   subtle shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale upper
   trough moves over the lower Great Lakes and the low-level flow
   adjusts accordingly.

   ..Gleason.. 12/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42567972 42847917 42967873 43027810 42907794 42737803
               42487842 42367890 42287946 42307977 42447983 42567972