Mesoscale Discussion 1882
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0408 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western NY downstream of Lake Ontario

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 261008Z - 261615Z

   SUMMARY...A developing band of heavy snow will shift southward this
   morning across a small part of western NY downstream of Lake
   Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour appear likely.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence and strong west-southwesterly
   winds along Lake Ontario are supporting a developing heavy snow band
   across a small part of western NY early this morning. The
   thermodynamic profile in the low levels is characterized by steep
   lapse rates from the surface through at least 750 mb along with
   saturation. This should easily support heavy snowfall rates of 2-3
   inches per hour for several hours within the core of the band.
   Current expectations are for this heavy snow band to maintain its
   intensity while shifting southward across the Tug Hill Plateau
   vicinity this morning, as a shortwave trough advances eastward over
   the lower Great Lakes and the low-level flow veers to a more
   westerly direction over Lake Ontario.

   ..Gleason.. 12/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44027646 44227637 44407594 43987545 43537550 43477586
               43517632 43747644 44027646