Mesoscale Discussion 1887
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 PM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

   Areas affected...the South Plains into southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300143Z - 300415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are quickly forming near the cold front/dryline
   intersection over the South Plains, and will rapidly travel
   northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma
   through early tonight. Marginal hail is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A rapid uptick in storm coverage and intensity has been
   noted over the past 30 minutes, notably just east of the LBB area
   and near the cold front/dryline intersection. Much of this
   convection will become elevated as it travels northeast, traversing
   the sagging cold front. Hail is thus the most likely threat, with
   ample effective shear to aid storm longevity. 

   Surface observations show upper 40s dewpoints over west TX, rising
   to around 55 F over southwest OK where the air temperatures are a
   bit cooler. Modified observed as well as forecast soundings suggest
   hail near 1" diameter will be possible, with mixed storm mode.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 12/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32910206 33380180 34800064 35449993 35609930 35509851
               35189827 34699830 34259866 33779927 33170022 32780118
               32630177 32700215 32910206