Mesoscale Discussion 1890
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302248Z - 310115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Shallow convection ongoing over southeast Texas may rotate
   at times, with a low chance of a brief/weak tornado or strong wind
   gust.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered shallow storms persist over southeast Texas
   ahead of a cold front extending from Shreveport to just northwest of
   the Houston metro as of 2230Z. These cells are within a low-level
   warm/moist advection regime where dewpoints have risen solidly into
   the middle 60s F.

   Given currently observed storm motions around 180/25 kt, modified
   VWP hodographs indicate marginal levels of SRH for a tornado threat
   (around 75-100 m2/s2 0-1km). Modified forecast soundings indicate
   that parcels are surface-based, but with minimal MLCAPE, and, with
   an inversion around 600 mb. Given the northward motion of the cells,
   it appears little rightward propagation is occurring at this time
   (which would increase SRH).

   While a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out with the stronger
   cells given sufficient shear, the overall severe threat appears low.
   Any minor threat will subside once the cold front passes, rendering
   cells elevated.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 12/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28409618 28379680 28869690 29729638 30549550 31399485
               31839425 31679383 30899356 29619396 29189475 28409618