Mesoscale Discussion 1896
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern South Carolina into southern North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312026Z - 312230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Recent convective development in eastern South Carolina
   may pose an isolated wind/tornado risk this afternoon.  A WW
   issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated nature of the
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of lightning-producing convection has
   evolved near Horry County, SC over the past hour or so, with modest
   but increasing organization noted on local radar.  The increase in
   intensity is likely aided by an advancing, low-amplitude mid-level
   wave evident on water vapor imagery and objective analysis.  The
   storms are in a marginally unstable environment (with over 500 J/kg
   MUCAPE in the pre-storm environment).  However, the presence of
   strong updrafts (and nearly 40kft echo tops) suggests that the
   storms may be taking advantage of the 40-50 kts of environmental
   deep shear, fostering organization.  Additionally, the presence of
   150-200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH may foster rotation in a few of the storms,
   enhancing any localized risk of a damaging wind gust or perhaps a
   tornado.  The overall risk should be localized and isolated given
   the marginal nature of the instability, however, precluding the need
   for a WW.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 12/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34407946 34787873 34977786 34947720 34617697 33757764
               33297857 33267927 33777969 34177955 34407946