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Mesoscale Discussion 3 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020
Areas affected...Central/Southeast Mississippi...Southwest Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 010331Z - 010530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some risk for tornadoes will focus along the warm front
over the next several hours. Even so, it's not clear a tornado watch
is warranted.
DISCUSSION...Surface warm front has lifted into central MS, arcing
southeast into southwest AL. Warm sector is characterized by
mid-upper 60s dew points but lapse rates are marginal and this is
limiting buoyancy across this region. 00z sounding from LIX supports
this with deep-layer lapse rates on the order of 5.5 C/km, though
strongly sheared with more than enough flow for sustaining
supercells. Convection has struggled to organize across the lower MS
Valley into the central Gulf coast region, partly due to the lack of
stronger forcing which is currently ejecting northeast across TX.
Additionally, substantial mid-level drying has overspread the warm
sector and this may be inhibiting more substantial updrafts,
especially given the weak low-level convergence. For these reasons,
if sustained supercells materialize they will likely focus along the
warm front where low-level convergence is greater. Given the dearth
of robust convection at this time it's not clear a new tornado watch
will be warranted.
..Darrow/Bunting.. 01/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32619059 32318917 31618813 30878863 31098970 32029097
32619059
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