Mesoscale Discussion 0023
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

   Areas affected...northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma and
   southwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242008Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may produce marginally severe hail later
   today, mainly over northeast Texas.

   DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front currently exists over north TX and
   into northern LA, with warm advection occurring just off the surface
   ahead of the upper trough. This is occurring beneath modestly steep
   midlevel lapse rates, with plenty of strong southwest flow aloft to
   elongate hodographs.

   Warm air advection and lift will increase along the Red River
   through 00Z with 850 mb winds increasing to over 30 kt. Forecast
   soundings show the increasing theta-e around 850 mb will lead to
   better instability, although still not particularly strong. Given
   the strong winds aloft and deep layer shear, a few of the storms
   that form this afternoon may eventually consolidate into marginally
   severe hail cores.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34329746 34609524 34119371 33669363 32939403 32489516
               32489698 32589732 33119785 33679824 34079809 34329746