ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 242008 SPC MCD 242008 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242245- Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Areas affected...northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242008Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A storm or two may produce marginally severe hail later today, mainly over northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front currently exists over north TX and into northern LA, with warm advection occurring just off the surface ahead of the upper trough. This is occurring beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, with plenty of strong southwest flow aloft to elongate hodographs. Warm air advection and lift will increase along the Red River through 00Z with 850 mb winds increasing to over 30 kt. Forecast soundings show the increasing theta-e around 850 mb will lead to better instability, although still not particularly strong. Given the strong winds aloft and deep layer shear, a few of the storms that form this afternoon may eventually consolidate into marginally severe hail cores. ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34329746 34609524 34119371 33669363 32939403 32489516 32489698 32589732 33119785 33679824 34079809 34329746 NNNN