ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250642 
SPC MCD 250642 
OKZ000-TXZ000-250845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central/eastern OK and north
TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 250642Z - 250845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and perhaps
strong/gusty winds may continue to increase early this morning.
Watch issuance is possible in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell that has recently strengthened
over western north TX is likely producing large hail as of 0640Z. As
a shortwave trough continues to eject northeastward across the
south-central Plains early this morning, additional storms may form
in a favorable low-level warm advection regime across this region.
It appears that most convection may tend to remain at least slightly
elevated above a near-surface stable layer noted on the 06Z observed
sounding from FWD. 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km were also
noted on this sounding, with nearly 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE available.
The presence of 50-60+ kt of deep-layer shear will support elevated
supercells capable of producing isolated large hail. Current
expectations are for most convection to remain to the north of a
surface warm front oriented generally east-west across north TX. If
storms can develop along an eastward-moving cold front later this
morning and become near-surface based, then the potential for strong
to perhaps damaging winds may also increase. Uncertainty remains
regarding the overall coverage of severe, elevated supercells, which
will determine watch potential.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33399891 33999910 34649875 35219746 35639592 35619457
            35159451 32989633 32989826 33399891 

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