ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252048 
SPC MCD 252048 
AZZ000-252245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Areas affected...South-Central AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252048Z - 252245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger gusts may occur across south-central AZ as
a shallow convective line moves through the region.

DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent attendant to an intense
shortwave trough approaching the region from southern CA has lead to
the development of a line of relatively deeper convection from
north-central Maricopa County southward into western Pima County.
This line is expected to continue eastward into a area with slightly
warmer temperatures (i.e. low to mid 50s) and steep low-level lapse
rates. These thermodynamic conditions combined with the deeper
convection could result in enhanced downward momentum transfer of
the stronger mid-level flow, resulting in a few stronger gusts at
the surface.

..Mosier.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32521235 33711221 33691153 33201103 32581093 32341100
            31601180 31981257 32521235 

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