ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061846 
SPC MCD 061846 
FLZ000-062115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061846Z - 062115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasingly strong, scattered thunderstorm development is
possible through 3-6 PM EST, accompanied by at least some risk for
severe weather.  It is not yet clear that a severe weather watch
will be needed, at least in the near term, but trends will continue
to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Moistening on modest south-southwesterly low-level
flow, including 20-30 kt around the 850 mb level, is contributing to
increasing CAPE in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates across much of central and southern
Florida.  To the north (roughly) of the Tampa, Avon Park, and Vero
Beach areas, this is still generally above a residually cool and
stable near-surface layer, but boundary-layer modification is
ongoing.  Breaks in cloud cover should allow for continued surface
heating through the afternoon, and, beneath broadly cyclonic,
southwesterly mid-level flow, some further strengthening of 850 mb
flow to 30+ kt is forecast.  As this occurs, veering of surface
winds to an increasingly southerly component is expected to be
accompanied by surface dew point increases into the upper 60s/near
70f.

While warm layers aloft are tending to suppress thunderstorm
development, forecast soundings suggest that the low-level warming
and moistening will increasingly overcome this inhibition this
afternoon.  Aided by large-scale ascent associated with warm
advection, and coinciding with an increasingly conducive environment
to boundary-layer based thunderstorm development, isolated supercell
structures appear possible.  Deep-layer sheer is already sufficient,
and with some further enlargement of low-level hodographs through
20-23Z, potential for at least isolated storms capable of producing
severe hail, locally strong surface gusts and some risk for a
tornado or two, probably will increase.

..Kerr/Hart.. 02/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29088230 28658162 28227998 27598035 27168165 27548256
            28248297 29088230 

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