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Mesoscale Discussion 60
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0060
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0848 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

   Areas affected...Northern/Central FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

   Valid 070248Z - 070415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will likely increase across portions of the
   northern/central FL Peninsula after 05-06z. New WW will be warranted
   to account for this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Higher theta-e air mass has struggled to advance north
   across the Peninsula this evening, partly due to extensive elevated
   convection north of the warm front and an eastern lobe of lower
   surface pressure off the northern FL Atlantic Coast in association
   with earlier convection. Strong/severe thunderstorms should be
   limited over land the next few hours near/just north of the boundary
   due to somewhat weaker low-level convergence. However, southwesterly
   LLJ should increase a bit toward 06z and this should encourage
   offshore convection over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to spread
   inland. It appears upper 60s surface dew points could advance into
   southern Marion and northern Volusia counties prior to the upstream
   short-wave's influence. If so, near-surface based supercells are
   possible along with some potential for a few tornadoes. Will
   continue to monitor this situation and a tornado watch will likely
   be warranted across this region into the pre-dawn hours.

   ..Darrow.. 02/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28498362 29608269 30078107 29098047 27388300 28498362 

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Page last modified: February 07, 2021
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