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Mesoscale Discussion 0060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021
Areas affected...Northern/Central FL Peninsula
Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...
Valid 070248Z - 070415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat will likely increase across portions of the
northern/central FL Peninsula after 05-06z. New WW will be warranted
to account for this threat.
DISCUSSION...Higher theta-e air mass has struggled to advance north
across the Peninsula this evening, partly due to extensive elevated
convection north of the warm front and an eastern lobe of lower
surface pressure off the northern FL Atlantic Coast in association
with earlier convection. Strong/severe thunderstorms should be
limited over land the next few hours near/just north of the boundary
due to somewhat weaker low-level convergence. However, southwesterly
LLJ should increase a bit toward 06z and this should encourage
offshore convection over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to spread
inland. It appears upper 60s surface dew points could advance into
southern Marion and northern Volusia counties prior to the upstream
short-wave's influence. If so, near-surface based supercells are
possible along with some potential for a few tornadoes. Will
continue to monitor this situation and a tornado watch will likely
be warranted across this region into the pre-dawn hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 28498362 29608269 30078107 29098047 27388300 28498362
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