ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131038 
SPC MCD 131038 
FLZ000-131315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Areas affected...Tampa Bay and the FL west coast beaches...central
FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131038Z - 131315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief/weak
tornado will increase this morning as a squall line over the shelf
waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves ashore between 7-8am EST.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a wave-train of disturbances
moving from northern Mexico eastward into the Gulf of Mexico.  A
lead mid-level impulse is gradually moving east from the central
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula early today.  Radar mosaic shows a
squall line over the shelf waters west of Tampa Bay.  Linear
extrapolation places the squall line moving ashore the beaches
around 7am EST.  

At the surface, a stationary frontal zone is analyzed from
immediately north of the Tampa metro east-northeast towards Daytona
Beach.  Surface conditions south of the boundary are characterized
by temperatures near 70 deg F and dewpoints in the upper 60s and mid
60s north of the boundary.  Forecast soundings show veering
low-level flow increasing to 45 kt in the midlevels.  Although lapse
rates are modest, 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE is objectively analyzed and
expected prior to squall line passage.  However, adequate hodograph
curvature in the lowest 1-2 km and the presence of the boundary
perhaps suggest sufficient low-level vorticity potential for
mesovortexgenesis.  Isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado
could occur.  The overall risk appears to be limited in magnitude
and expected coverage to probably not warrant a severe thunderstorm
watch issuance.  However, convective trends will be monitored as the
squall line approaches the peninsula.

..Smith/Edwards.. 02/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28798298 29328211 28938151 28068161 27398275 27848322
            28798298 

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