Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...Florida coastal areas north of Tampa into
Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...
Valid 160038Z - 160245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.
SUMMARY...Intensification of inland advancing thunderstorms is
possible across interior northern Florida, near and northeast of the
Gainesville and Ocala vicinities, by 8-9 PM EST. This may pose the
risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
Destabilization along coastal areas closer to Tampa is being
monitored. It is possible that a severe weather watch may be
needed, but not yet certain.
DISCUSSION...Aided by advection within broadly cyclonic, 40-50 kt
south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, a broken pre-frontal
squall line continues to gradually progress inland of coastal areas
to the northwest of Cedar Key. Nearly coincident with a 40-50 kt
southerly 850 mb jet, low-level shear is contributing to the
evolution of small-scale mesovortices within a number of embedded
organized convective structures. However, based on objective
analyses, activity is progressing across a weakly unstable to stable
boundary-layer, across the coastal waters into coastal areas. This
may tend to limit the severe weather potential; but, as activity
encounters the remnants of a heated and lingering unstable
boundary-layer over interior northern Florida, there appears
potential for intensification of activity near and north-northeast
of the Gainesville and Ocala vicinities by 01-02Z.
To the southwest, low-level moistening off the eastern Gulf of
Mexico may contribute to increasing destabilization along coastal
areas closer to Tampa by 02-04Z. This could be accompanied by the
inland progression of vigorous convection, including a supercell
structure or two which could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts
and/or a tornado.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29958240 30628192 30578151 29108199 27878289 28088344