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Mesoscale Discussion 97
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...Florida coastal areas north of Tampa into
   northeastern Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

   Valid 160038Z - 160245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

   SUMMARY...Intensification of inland advancing thunderstorms is
   possible across interior northern Florida, near and northeast of the
   Gainesville and Ocala vicinities, by 8-9 PM EST.  This may pose the
   risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

   Destabilization along coastal areas closer to Tampa is being
   monitored.  It is possible that a severe weather watch may be
   needed, but not yet certain.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by advection within broadly cyclonic, 40-50 kt
   south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, a broken pre-frontal
   squall line continues to gradually progress inland of coastal areas
   to the northwest of Cedar Key.  Nearly coincident with a 40-50 kt
   southerly 850 mb jet, low-level shear is contributing to the
   evolution of small-scale mesovortices within a number of embedded
   organized convective structures.  However, based on objective
   analyses, activity is progressing across a weakly unstable to stable
   boundary-layer, across the coastal waters into coastal areas.  This
   may tend to limit the severe weather potential; but, as activity
   encounters the remnants of a heated and lingering unstable
   boundary-layer over interior northern Florida, there appears
   potential for intensification of activity near and north-northeast
   of the Gainesville and Ocala vicinities by 01-02Z.

   To the southwest, low-level moistening off the eastern Gulf of
   Mexico may contribute to increasing destabilization along coastal
   areas closer to Tampa by 02-04Z.  This could be accompanied by the
   inland progression of vigorous convection, including a supercell
   structure or two which could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts
   and/or a tornado.

   ..Kerr.. 02/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29958240 30628192 30578151 29108199 27878289 28088344
               28928293 29958240 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2021
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