Mesoscale Discussion 0102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

   Areas affected...Oklahoma and much of north Texas

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 162115Z - 170115Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to locally heavy snow will continue to
   expand northeastward across the discussion area from western north
   Texas this afternoon and evening.  Rates of 1 inch per hour are
   possible in heavier bands.

   DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an ejecting mid-level wave over
   New Mexico and an ejecting speed max across west-central Texas has
   contributed to an expanding area of precipitation across the Texas
   South Plains and western North Texas currently.  Moderate to heavy
   snow has been observed at Lubbock, Childress, and Hardeman County
   over the past hour or so beneath heavier precipitation bands.  The
   precipitation was falling within nearly saturated mid-level
   thermodynamic profiles observed via model soundings, and the
   expectation is that low-level moistening will continue as
   precipitation continues to expand in coverage.  A warm layer
   (approaching 0 deg C) was noted in profiles across portions of
   western north Texas, which may foster occasional mixing with sleet
   and even convective development especially on the southern extent of
   the discussion area.

   Over time, models support a general expansion of the precipitation
   shield across much of the discussion area with potential for a
   couple of areas of heavier precipitation - one across
   north-central/central Oklahoma (near the US 412 corridor) and 2)
   across southern Oklahoma, where isentropic lift (from convergent
   850hPa flow) will contribute to heavier precipitation near the Red
   River.  Along the Red River, this increase in precipitation
   intensity is expected to occur gradually through at least 02Z.

   ..Cook.. 02/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32329945 32670044 33420080 34770089 35850053 36589962
               36879877 36989769 36749668 36119608 35309589 34759589
               33789588 32899650 32329827 32329945