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Mesoscale Discussion 133 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
Areas affected...Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 280747Z - 281015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A storm or two may briefly produce marginal hail from
central into northeast Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front moving across
northern OK, with showers now developing along it. While the
low-level air mass is moist, drying is occurring aloft with GPS
water-vapor values decreasing with time. Still, there may be
sufficient boundary-layer moisture to sustain brief thunderstorms
along the cold front over the next few hours. The better moisture
quality currently resides along and east of the I-44 corridor,
beneath ample southwesterly flow aloft elongating hodographs. The
favorable deep-layer shear as well as cold midlevel temperatures
will conditionally favor a strong cell or two, but any threat should
remain isolated, and likely short-lived.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35179700 35149750 35339773 35679773 36689617 36809542
36669502 36279495 35679576 35179700
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