Mesoscale Discussion 0137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

   Areas affected...northeast Texas through southwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12...

   Valid 282025Z - 282230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and locally strong to
   damaging wind gusts remain possible through early evening across the
   remaining portion of severe thunderstorm watch 12 from northeast
   Texas into southwest Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...General trend has been for storms to decrease in
   coverage in wake of initial activity, possibly due to weak forcing
   for ascent upstream of early impulse. Low-level winds have veered to
   southwesterly in the warm sector, and widespread clouds persist
   which is limiting boundary layer destabilization. However, a minor
   upstream vorticity maximum will move northeast and interact with the
   cold front later this afternoon, and might contribute to development
   of additional storms along the front. Instability remains modest
   with with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. Though low-level winds are
   relatively weak and veered immediately in advance of the cold front,
   strong effective bulk shear in excess of 60 kt should support a
   conditional risk for a few organized structures with large hail and
   damaging wind the main threats.

   ..Dial.. 02/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32689654 34009477 34569385 34529339 33599343 33019396
               32489527 32359607 32689654