ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121457 
SPC MCD 121457 
KSZ000-OKZ000-121630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Areas affected...Far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121457Z - 121630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible for the next several
hours, primarily across southern Kansas

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed within a broad
region of isentropic ascent across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas. The 12Z DDC RAOB showed an environment characterized by 600
J/kg MUCAPE, 7.5 to 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and effective
shear in excess of 40 kts. SPC mesoanalysis suggests a similar
environment is likely present across much of southern Kansas and
should remain somewhat constant through the morning. Therefore, a
few stronger updrafts capable of large hail are expected, but it is
expected to be intermittent due to the limited instability. The best
chance for stronger/longer lived strong updrafts will be on the
southern portion of this convective cluster across southern Kansas.
Due to the marginal/intermittent nature of the threat, no watch is
anticipated.

..Bentley/Grams.. 03/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37419923 37649863 38029741 38269579 38159493 37839487
            37419545 36889703 36579838 36609911 36949938 37419923 

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