ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161807 
SPC MCD 161807 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Areas affected...Southeast MS...Southern AL...Southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161807Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe storm or two is possible this afternoon from
southeast MS across southern AL and into southwest GA. Damaging wind
gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown sporadic bouts of
updraft intensification over the past hour or so, but little
persistence has been noted thus far. The overall thermodynamic
environment has improved slightly, mainly south of the effective
warm front, which is stretched from MEI eastward/east-northeastward
across central AL into central GA. The better flow aloft still
remains north of this boundary, with the resulting dissociation
between the buoyancy and vertical shear contributing to a generally
marginal environment.

General expectation is for warm-air advection to continue across the
region with shallow cells developing south of the warm front and
moving northward/northeastward. A narrow corridor exists within the
vicinity of the front where buoyancy and vertical shear overlap
enough to support a strong storm or two. Storm mergers could also
lead to brief updraft intensification and the potential for a strong
downdraft.

..Mosier/Grams.. 03/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31788930 32658630 32458405 31178484 30938930 31788930 

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