ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272134 
SPC MCD 272134 
TXZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Areas affected...parts of east Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 272134Z - 272330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form into east Texas over the next
few hours, with primarily a damaging hail threat. A brief tornado is
also possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong instability has developed over the region, with
MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg beneath strong southwesterlies aloft.
This area is well ahead of the cold front, currently over southern
OK into northwest TX. Only minor capping exists near 700 mb, and it
is expected that the convection developing northwest of Houston will
continue to deepen and eventually become severe southeast of the
Metroplex. Low-level winds and shear are a bit marginal for a
tornado threat, but supercell storm mode may favor a brief tornado
given strong updrafts. Hodographs are quite elongated, and will
support supercell storm mode favoring large, damaging hail this
evening after 23-00Z.

..Jewell/Grams.. 03/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32199644 32689631 33049611 33199580 33179522 32939512
            31779518 31489487 31169485 30419647 30699672 31479654
            32199644 

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