Mesoscale Discussion 0340
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of central Alabama and adjacent portions of
   eastern Mississippi and western Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091644Z - 091845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development appears
   possible by 1-3 PM CDT, posing increasing potential for large,
   possibly damaging hail.  It is not yet certain a severe weather
   watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for
   this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Daytime heating of a deepening moist boundary layer,
   beneath the eastern fringes of plume of warm elevated mixed-layer
   air is contributing to moderately large mixed layer CAPE across much
   of central Alabama and surrounding areas.  Mid-level inhibition
   appears relatively weak, and various model output indicates the
   initiation of increasing scattered thunderstorm development is
   possible by 18-20Z.  Mid/upper support for this is unclear, but much
   of the region is under the influence of at least broad, weak
   low-level warm advection. 

   Low-level wind fields are modest to weak, but westerly flow on the
   order of 30-40+ kt may persist and contribute to sufficient
   deep-layer shear for supercell structures posing a risk for severe
   hail.  Some of this could become fairly large, given the
   thermodynamic profiles.  It is possible an eventual consolidation of
   storms could lead to an upscale growing and organizing cluster of
   storms posing increasing potential for damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33998893 34258727 33828576 33218490 32148510 32118651
               31928790 32498921 33998893