Mesoscale Discussion 0382
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141743Z - 141945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be
   accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally
   strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon.  A WW may be
   required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
   western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the
   Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau. 
   Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties,
   with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.

   Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area,
   continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap
   locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries
   where ascent is locally maximized.  With steep lapse rates overlying
   this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment
   -- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg
   across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with
   the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.

   While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest
   low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies
   are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and
   even some mid-level updraft rotation.  As such, potential for hail
   and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of
   the strongest storms.  We will continue to monitor development, for
   signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475
               28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811