Mesoscale Discussion 0455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 119...

   Valid 282040Z - 282215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest short-term severe threat will exist with a
   supercell capable of producing 2+ inch hail. A tornado also remains
   possible. Additional storms may form along a stalled surface
   boundary.

   DISCUSSION...A severe supercell moving from Runnels/Taylor counties
   into Callahan/Coleman counties in central TX will continue to pose a
   threat for large to very large (2+ inch) hail in the short term.
   Surface observations to the south/southeast of this ongoing storm
   indicate surface temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s,
   while dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 60s. Accordingly,
   instability is maximized near this supercell per latest mesoanalysis
   estimates, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Low-level flow appears
   fairly week based on recent VWPs from KDYX, but it does strengthen
   some with eastward extent into central TX. A tornado remains
   possible in the short term with any supercell that can remain
   sustained, but large hail will likely remain the primary severe risk
   for the next hour or two. Additional storms may form along a stalled
   outflow boundary that is draped across this region, particularly
   where this boundary intersects a surface dryline near San Angelo TX.
   Any additional convection that develops will likely become severe
   quickly and pose at a very large hail threat.

   ..Gleason.. 04/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31619919 31619992 31340026 31330047 31560046 32280018
               32549965 32639925 32519846 32239838 31839855 31619919