Mesoscale Discussion 0472
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

   Areas affected...Central Louisiana and far east Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021847Z - 022015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected through
   the afternoon. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts along
   with a tornado or two will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...An area of showers has shown gradually cooling cloud
   tops over the past hour. The environment is currently not overly
   favorable for severe weather with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg and
   a mostly unidirectional wind profile. However, additional heating
   and low-level moisture advection is expected to yield greater
   instability by later this afternoon in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.
   This may be sufficient for a few stronger updrafts and supercell
   structures given 35 to 40 knots of effective shear. Weak rotation in
   most of the ongoing showers further supports the potential for
   supercell structures, at least initially. Veered low-level flow
   should limit the overall tornado threat, but moderate speed shear
   (0-1 km shear around 25 kts per KPOE VWP) and more backed low-level
   flow across northeast Louisiana may support a tornado or two by
   later this afternoon/evening. 

   A watch is possible, but the limited area and duration of the threat
   may preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Bentley/Dial.. 05/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32209366 32399313 32289234 31929187 31459165 31269173
               30989219 30599286 30479339 30689369 31089390 31649394
               32209366