ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022033 
SPC MCD 022033 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022033Z - 022230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across central Louisiana may
intensify in the coming hours as clouds gradually clear over eastern
LA and west/southwest MS. Trends will continue to be monitored, and
a watch is possible in the coming hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar trends show scattered
thunderstorms continue to develop across central LA within a broad
warm frontal zone and just ahead of a mid-level vorticity maximum.
However, convective intensity has generally stagnated, likely due to
a combination of marginal instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE),
somewhat shallow mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km), and a lack
of stronger low-level forcing for ascent. These storms will likely
remain sub-severe in the near term, but an increase in intensity is
possible further downstream across northeast LA and into western and
southwestern MS. Latest GOES visible imagery shows gradual clearing
across this region, and surface temperatures have responded with
several stations reporting temperatures in the upper 70s and low
80s. This will help augment MLCAPE over the next few hours and may
support gradual intensification. Additionally, regional VWPs show
veering flow within the lowest 2-3 km that could support organized
low-level mesocyclones and a more robust severe threat. A watch is
possible in the coming hours if convective trends begin to show
signs of intensification.

..Moore/Dial.. 05/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31739234 32369209 32819178 33169134 33409093 33539054
            33469008 33158976 32458963 31878964 31488969 31268990
            31169042 31109105 31089149 31089201 31159236 31739234 

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