ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022141 
SPC MCD 022141 
ALZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

Areas affected...western Alabama.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 022141Z - 022245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Small supercells with a history of producing tornadoes may
continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes over the next couple of
hours as a warm front lifts northeastward.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis showed a diffuse warm front across
western Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Several small supercells
have developed over the last within the deep surface moisture to the
southwest of the warm front. Weak destabilization, MLCAPE around 500
J/kg, will likely continue to support weak convection for at least a
couple of hours. Backed low-level winds along the front are
enhancing low-level shear with 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Hi-res
guidance and observational trends suggest a corridor of tornado
potential will likely exists for at least a couple of hours as
storms move to the northeast along the front. Coverage is expected
to remain low, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Portions of
west-central Alabama will be included in a Tornado Watch being
coordinated across Mississippi.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33838781 33418738 32428730 31968730 31668742 31628766
            31728790 32218819 32868830 33458824 33558823 33908808
            33838781 

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