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Mesoscale Discussion 540
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0540
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...portions of eastern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150...

   Valid 042359Z - 050100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms along the I-95 corridor of eastern South
   Carolina will pose a risk for isolated damaging winds and marginally
   severe hail over the next hour. A general weakening trend is
   expected to continue.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, radar and satellite trends across the
   Carolinas have shown a general weakening of ongoing convection. A
   couple of severe storms remain east of I-95 in South Carolina.
   Recent storm reports confirm these storms are still capable of
   producing mainly severe wind gusts as they move off to the
   northeast. SPC mesoanalysis shows mixed-layer inhibition of -100 to
   -150 J/kg slowly increasing across the area with the loss of diurnal
   heating and convective overturning from previous bands of storms.
   Hi-res guidance also agrees with the observed weakening trend,
   supporting moderate to high confidence that the severe weather risk
   will continue to gradually decay early this evening and after
   sunset. Until then, storms will remain capable of producing isolated
   damaging wind gusts given an unstable (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
   weakly sheared environment.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33607921 33267952 32897995 32968059 33288070 33728028
               34147942 34107917 33947904 33607921 

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