Mesoscale Discussion 0560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

   Areas affected...The Big Bend region of southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082024Z - 082130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...One or two thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon
   across southern Texas. However, the severe threat is expected to
   remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows a growing field of agitated
   cumulus in the Fort Stockton, TX area along a semi-diffuse dryline.
   This region is on the periphery of richer boundary-layer moisture
   with dewpoints only reaching the low 50s on the moist side of the
   confluence axis. However, RAP mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
   suggest a narrow corridor may exist where sufficient moisture and
   boundary-layer heating (surface temperatures in the low 90s are
   noted in the region) will support 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE with minimal
   inhibition. Recent HRRR guidance suggests a storm or two may develop
   in this corridor and/or within the higher terrain of northern Mexico
   by late afternoon. Given 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, storm
   organization is likely and may support an isolated hail/wind threat.
   Any storm that can initiate will encounter a higher MUCIN
   environment as it moves eastward into south-central TX. This casts
   some uncertainty into the duration of any robust convection. Given
   the isolated, and possibly short duration, nature of this threat, a
   watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28960345 29810335 30800302 31360253 31910198 31920125
               31530059 30780046 29770100 29370116 29580149 29670181
               29700218 29550255 29240272 29050286 28830301 28850327
               28960345