ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082024 
SPC MCD 082024 
KSZ000-NEZ000-082230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Areas affected...portions of central KS and extreme south-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 082024Z - 082230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the 5-7 pm CDT/22z-00z time frame, with a risk for primarily large
hail and damaging winds. Observational trends are being monitored
and a watch is likely to 22z.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a high-based
cumulus field becoming better established over portions of southwest
and central KS near a triple point north of Dodge City. A warm front
extends north/east from the triple point across northern KS, while a
cold front continues moving southward over western KS.  Strong
heating/mixing of mid-upper 50s surface dew points has resulted in
moderate-strong MLCAPE beneath an EML within the warm sector, with
further erosion of MLCINH contributing to thunderstorm development
in the 22z-00z time frame as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches
from the west. 

Isolated supercell storms developing initially near the triple point
will move east-northeast in the vicinity of the warm front with a
risk for primarily large hail.  Damaging winds will become more
likely with time, and some risk for a tornado may also exist,
especially with discrete storms near the warm front.  Thunderstorm
coverage should increase through early evening along the cold front
as it advances eastward over north-central KS. 

Trends continue to be monitored and a watch is likely by 22z.

..Bunting/Thompson.. 05/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37889922 37939965 38319993 39099957 39599931 39979920
            40209872 40189814 39969796 39549797 39279795 38979795
            38719796 38239814 37889922 

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