ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082306 
SPC MCD 082306 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Areas affected...Kansas...Southern Nebraska...Far Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

Valid 082306Z - 090100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind-damage, large hail and a tornado threat will continue
to be possible across central and northern Kansas into southern
Nebraska over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance will be
needed soon across parts of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and
far northwest Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows two clusters of strong to
severe thunderstorms. The first is located in west-central Kansas
with the second in far south-central Nebraska. These storms are
located along an axis of moderate instability with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. A 994 mb surface
low is located over southwest Kansas. The low is associated with a
shortwave trough over far eastern Colorado, evident on water vapor
imagery. As the shortwave moves eastward low-level flow will
increase across the central Plains. This will support the
development of a MCS. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Hastings shows 0-6
km shear 55 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 350 m2/s2.
This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will support
supercells with large hail and possibly a tornado threat. As the
storms merge into a bowing line segment, the wind-damage threat will
increase later this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39559976 38549970 37929958 37899897 38369795 38769591
            39179507 39609489 40069492 40449540 40559623 40489863
            40109960 39559976 

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