ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 141956 SPC MCD 141956 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-142200- Mesoscale Discussion 0609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and far western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141956Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development along the Front Range may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts over the next several hours. A greater severe threat may evolve later this afternoon/early this evening as storms move toward eastern Colorado. A weather watch is unlikely in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, visible satellite showed several areas of high-based convection and weak thunderstorms from the southern Laramie Range across eastern Wyoming into north-central Colorado. Additional convective development appears likely ahead of a weak shortwave trough within northwest flow across the central Rockies. Surface observations showed weak upslope flow was occurring across much of the central High Plains with 40s and 50s F dewpoints slowly advancing westward. SPC Mesoanalysis and hi-res model sounding trends suggest that convection will continue to strengthen as afternoon heating erodes remaining MLCINH and the atmosphere gradually destabilizes. 25-35 kts of effective shear should support only modest storm organization in the form of multi-cell clusters through this afternoon. Large temperature/dew point spreads of 20-30 degrees F suggest the primary threat with any stronger thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts, though small hail will also be possible given steep mid-level lapse rates around 9 C/km. As storm development continues later this afternoon and early this evening, consolidating outflow/deeper cold pools may support a gradual increase in convective coverage/organization as storms approach far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Hi-res guidance hints at the development of an MCS or storm cluster capable of producing a greater damaging wind threat as storms begin to encounter greater buoyancy from increasing boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints 50-60 F). Details on convective evolution remain scant, but a more focused corridor for damaging wind potential, requiring a weather watch, may evolve out of the ongoing storms. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 05/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40870352 40440313 40200260 40050230 39680226 39240221 38930234 38770271 38660325 38660383 38840445 39430493 40150496 40680503 41080531 41350562 41750547 41890510 41760457 41360399 40870352 NNNN