ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142054 
SPC MCD 142054 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Areas affected...western kansas and far southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142054Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat of damaging winds and
severe hail is expected late this afternoon and into this evening
across far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. A weather watch may
be needed.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms ongoing east of the Denver
Metro are expected to continue eastward towards extreme eastern
Colorado and western Kansas over the next few hours. Additional
storm development in northeastern Colorado and southern Nebraska
appears likely, as lift from weak upslope flow and an upstream
shortwave trough begin to move across the High Plains. Surface
observations show increasing moisture with eastward extent across
western Kansas, where mid to upper 50s F dewpoints reside. Continued
low-level moisture advection from southeasterly winds will increase
surface dewpoints to near 60 F this evening, contributing to
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective shear of 30-40 kts should be
sufficient to organize updrafts into line segments and clusters,
with eventual upscale growth into an MCS expected. Damaging wind
gusts and severe hail appear to be the primary threats given steep
lapse-rates through the low and mid levels. A weather watch may be
needed as early as 22-23z, though some uncertainty in convective
evolution remains given the slow organization of storms thus far.

..Lyons/Kerr.. 05/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38160194 38710206 39450214 39860213 40280203 40300083
            40140049 39860022 39269988 38699982 38070006 37730051
            37750139 38160194 

NNNN