ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150010 
SPC MCD 150010 
KSZ000-150215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Areas affected...west-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

Valid 150010Z - 150215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.

SUMMARY...A supercell or two in the northeast part of WW 170 will
move slowly to the south-southeast.  Hail and wind are the primary
risks.  Eventual thunderstorm outflow consolidation will focus the
risk for severe gusts over parts of west-central KS in the 0200-0330
UTC period.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms across parts of northwest KS into eastern CO, and
farther south into extreme southeast CO moving into southwest KS as
of 0000 UTC.  A strengthening LLJ over the next 2 hours will further
aid in storm activity consolidating over western KS as it moves into
a more moisture-rich airmass with mid-upper 50s deg F dewpoints. 
Steep lapse rates evident on the 0000 UTC Dodge City raob (7.8 deg
C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) will aid in storm intensity, despite
gradual cooling in the boundary layer this evening.  Large hail and
severe gusts may accompany the more discrete activity over the
northeast portion of WW 170.  Otherwise, severe gusts (60-75 mph)
will become the primary concern this evening over west-central KS.

..Smith.. 05/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39520120 39650026 39389933 38869919 38179964 38060068
            38560141 39520120 

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